POPULATION ECONOMICS (PART 3)

THEORIES OF POPULATION

Two theories are mentioned – Malthusian Theory and Demographic Transition Theory.

- Malthus’ Population Theory is a theory on overpopulation.

- For Demographic Transition Theory, it links fertility and mortality rates to the level of development of a society.

Malthusian Theory of Population

Malthusian or Malthus’ Population Theory is a population theory by Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, published in his book titled, “Essay on the Principle of Population” in 1798.

Malthus proposed that:
1. population was growing at geometric progression (i.e. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1,024), while food production was growing at arithmetic progression (i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc).

Note: Food production is also referred to as 'means of subsistence

2. Food production (means of subsistence) will NOT grow with population because of the law of diminishing returns 

3.  If population remains unchecked, humans beings will double themselves every 25 yrs, increase 64 times in the next 150 yrs but food supply will increase 7 times.

Checks Suggested by Malthus

Since Malthus was taking about overpopulation, checks mean measures to control overpopulation.
Checks suggested by Malthus are categorized as:

1. Man-made checks or Preventive checks:
This refers to measures taken by man to reduce population. 

Examples include late marriage, birth control, etc. Man-made checks could also be called preventive checks.

2. Natural checks or Positive checks:
This refers to nature’s way of reducing population. 

Examples are natural disaster, war, famine, disease outbreak, etc. This is also referred to as Malthus Catastrophe or Malthus Crisis, since it’s all about mishap.

Criticism of Malthusian Theory
(How Malthus Has Been Proven Wrong)

(i) Technological and Technical Progress:  With the application of technology and technical ability to production, output has increased many fold from an input. This makes it possible to support the increasing human population with resources.

When Malthus propounded his theory, world population was 800 million. As of 2022, world population hit 8 billion; yet food insecurity is NOT too bad, anyway.

(ii) Neglect of manpower aspect in population: Every person born into this world has the capacity to work and produce output more than what he/she can consume.

(iii) Malthusian theory was rather too pessimistic – it is a pessimistic population theory.

How Malthus May Be Right
- Depletion of Natural Resources: Some non-renewable resources such as crude oil is being exhausted because of high consumption from high population.

- Climate change, such as global warming arises from the activities of increased number of humans on the earth.

- Scarcity of Resources: High population causes scarcity of raw materials and other resources due to increasing needs of the increasing population.


Demographic Transition Theory
This population theory relates natural population growth with the level of industrialization (technological development) of a society.
OR
This population theory relates the level of birth rate and death rate with the level of industrialization (or level of development) of a society.

OR

This population theory explains relationship between fertility rate (birth rate) and mortality rate (death rate) on population growth and how developed countries have passed through the stages of the theory.

Basically, three (3) stages can be identified in this demographic (population) transition theory.

Developed societies (countries) of Europe and North America have passed through all the 3 stages of this theory.

Here is the explanation of the stages

Stage 1: Pre-transition stage, or Pre-industrialization Society
At this time, a society would have:
- High fertility and high mortality, so population remains low; because the high deaths cancel the gains of high births.

It is a feature of a society before it starts industrializing or developing.

Stage 2: Transition stage, or Industrializing Society (Developing Society)

At this time, a society would have:

- High fertility and low mortality, so the population expands rapidly, resulting in population explosion. That's what its means - with high births but low deaths. 
It is a feature of a society that is taking off industrially (i.e. developing countries).

African countries are at this stage, because they are industrializing or developing.

Stage 3: Post-Transition stage, or Industrialized Society (Developed Society)
At this time, a society would have:

- Low fertility rate and low mortality rate,  so population remains stable.

It is a feature of an industrialized or a developed or advanced society (developed countries).

Again, all the developed countries have gone through these three stages of demographic transition population theory.

Characteristics/Features of Each of the 3 Stages
Stage 1: The period of Pre-industrialization
Pre-industrialization period could also be called pre-modernization period. (Remember, it is industrialization that brings about modernization).

Features of this period or features of pre-industrialization society are:
- Food shortages, causing hunger
- low knowledge of disease prevention and cure, resulting in high deaths.
- poor health care and hygiene
- low level of literacy

Stage 2: Industrializing Economies (Developing economies/countries)
An industrializing society is moving towards modernization.

Features of this period or features of industrializing society are:
- Increase in literacy
- better medical care
- Better sanitation, hygiene and diseases control
- improvement in agriculture
- improvement in technology
- high infant and maternal mortality rate
- overdependence on natural resources
- improvement in the education of women and women being in the labour force

Stage 3: Industrialized Economies (Developed economies/countries)
An industrialized society is developed and modernized. There is so much of manufacturing and constructions in an industrialized society.

Its features are:
- Economic development
- High level of technology
- High level of literacy
- High level of infrastructure

THANK YOU

For more information & inquiry, send e-mail to: senaipia@gmail.com, or call: +2347052802574