POPULATION ECONOMICS (PART 1)
Introduction
Human resource, as an economic resource, comes from the population. Population is therefore the source of human resources. Population determines the size of the consumer market. Population may even determine level of output of goods and services. It is in the population that economic activities of consumption, production, exchange and investment are performs.
On the negative side, population size may retard development, except for technological intervention.
Definition of Population
Population is the number of people living in an area or country.
Determinants of Population
The population of a place is determined by its birth rate, death rate, and migration.
1. Birth Rate:
Birth rate is the number of live births per thousand of population per a year in an area.
The population of a place is determined by its birth rate, death rate, and migration.
1. Birth Rate:
Birth rate is the number of live births per thousand of population per a year in an area.
For example, if 75 births occur per year per 1000 individuals, the birth rate is said to be 75.
Illustration
How many live births are there in a population of 12 000 000 people if the birth rate is 15.
How many live births are there in a population of 12 000 000 people if the birth rate is 15.
Answer
It means there are 15 births for every 1000 people.
So, live births in the population = 15/1000 × 12 000 000 = 180 000 live births.
2. Death Rate:
Death rate is the number of deaths per thousand of population per a year in an area.
For example, if 32 deaths occur per year per 1000 individuals, the death rate is said to be 32.
It means there are 15 births for every 1000 people.
So, live births in the population = 15/1000 × 12 000 000 = 180 000 live births.
2. Death Rate:
Death rate is the number of deaths per thousand of population per a year in an area.
For example, if 32 deaths occur per year per 1000 individuals, the death rate is said to be 32.
Another term for death rate is mortality rate.
Illustration
How many deaths are there in a population of 12 000 000 if the death rate is 5.
Answer
It means there are 5 deaths for every 1000 people.
So, deaths in the population = 5/1000 × 12 000 000 = 60,000 deaths.
3. Migration:
Migration is the movement of people to a new area or country.
Illustration
How many deaths are there in a population of 12 000 000 if the death rate is 5.
Answer
It means there are 5 deaths for every 1000 people.
So, deaths in the population = 5/1000 × 12 000 000 = 60,000 deaths.
3. Migration:
Migration is the movement of people to a new area or country.
People who migrate are referred to as migrants.
Migration is divided into immigration and emigration.
Migration is divided into immigration and emigration.
Immigration is the movement of foreigners into a country. These foreigners are referred to as immigrants.
Emigration is the act of leaving one’s country to another. And the people are referred to as emigrants.
Hint: You can simply use the word "Migrant" to mean both emigrant and immigrant.
Now the difference between immigration and emigration is net migration.
Hint: You can simply use the word "Migrant" to mean both emigrant and immigrant.
Now the difference between immigration and emigration is net migration.
Population Growth Rate
There is natural growth rate and there is man-made growth rate of population
1. Natural Growth Rate of Population: This occurs when birth rate is higher than death rate.
2. Man-made Growth Rate of a Population: This occurs when number of immigrants is higher than number of emigrants.
There is natural growth rate and there is man-made growth rate of population
1. Natural Growth Rate of Population: This occurs when birth rate is higher than death rate.
2. Man-made Growth Rate of a Population: This occurs when number of immigrants is higher than number of emigrants.
Factors Affecting Population Growth
(i) Early Marriage: This is when a female or male or both get married at a younger age. People who marry early tend to have many children, thereby increasing population. On the contrary, people who marry late have fewer children.
(i) Early Marriage: This is when a female or male or both get married at a younger age. People who marry early tend to have many children, thereby increasing population. On the contrary, people who marry late have fewer children.
(ii) Family Planning: This refers to controlling the number of children a couple can have and care for through child spacing and other birth control measures. Family planning reduces the number of children born to a family. But the opposite – no family planning – increases population.
Early marriage and family planning could be referred to as birth rate factors affecting population growth.
Early marriage and family planning could be referred to as birth rate factors affecting population growth.
(iii) Improved medical services: With better medical care, many people survive sicknesses and diseases, there reducing death rate, which help population grow.
(iv) Better sanitation, hygiene and diseases control, which limit the occurrence of diseases outbreak and their spread, if they occur.
(v) Religious and Cultural Beliefs: Some religion and culture allow marrying more than one wife. This results in having many children, and invariably, the population grows.
(vi) Migration: Population of an area grows if immigrants outnumber emigrants.
Measures for Controlling Population Growth
The following measures can be used to control population growth:
(vi) Migration: Population of an area grows if immigrants outnumber emigrants.
Measures for Controlling Population Growth
The following measures can be used to control population growth:
(i) Family planning, to reduce number of child in a family
(ii) Encourage emigration, to let people leave the area or country.
(iii) Discouragement or disincentive on immigration, so that more people do not come to leave in the area or country.
(iv) Limiting the number of children per family. For example, in China, families are permitted to only have 2 children.
(ii) Encourage emigration, to let people leave the area or country.
(iii) Discouragement or disincentive on immigration, so that more people do not come to leave in the area or country.
(iv) Limiting the number of children per family. For example, in China, families are permitted to only have 2 children.
(v) Legalizing Abortion: Making a law that permits abortion of pregnancy. Though this is morally wrong, some countries approve it, however.
Population Distribution (Grouping of Population)
Population distribution is grouping population based on a certain criteria. Depending on the analysis to be carried out, population can be grouped based on:
Population Distribution (Grouping of Population)
Population distribution is grouping population based on a certain criteria. Depending on the analysis to be carried out, population can be grouped based on:
(a) Sex Distribution of Population: This means classifying or grouping a population into male and female.
(b) Age Distribution of Population: This means grouping a population based on age limit or age bracket.
Age categorization of population may be for schooling, health care delivery, legal maturity age, etc.
Age categorization of population may be for schooling, health care delivery, legal maturity age, etc.
For example,
-18 years and above show adulthood.
- 18 – 59 years shows a working population, if retirement age is 60 yrs
- 60 year & above shows retirement
Working out the age distribution of a population helps in planning for the different age brackets in a population.
(c) Occupational Distribution of Population: This means grouping population according to the economic activities of a people.
- 60 year & above shows retirement
Working out the age distribution of a population helps in planning for the different age brackets in a population.
(c) Occupational Distribution of Population: This means grouping population according to the economic activities of a people.
(d) Geographical Distribution of Population: This means grouping population according to the locations or regions where the people live.
Note: i. Climate is one factor that affects geographical distribution of population.
Note: i. Climate is one factor that affects geographical distribution of population.
ii. Age, sex, occupation, are examples of what is known as demographic characteristics of population.
Determination of Population Size
Basically, there are 2 methods of determining (or calculating) the population size (or figure) of a place or an area, such as community, village, town, city, country or region. It is either by:
1. knowing the previous population figure, and then calculating the number of births, deaths immigrants, and emigrants thereafter.
OR
2. conducting population census.
Method 1: Previous Population Figure + Births – Deaths + Immigrants – Emigrants
OR
2. conducting population census.
Method 1: Previous Population Figure + Births – Deaths + Immigrants – Emigrants
The population of a country at the beginning of year 1999 is 12 million. The births were 250,000 while it recorded 91,000 deaths. If in the same year its immigrants were 16,000 and 12,000 people left the country, calculate the total population at the end of year 1999.
Answer
Population at year start 12,000, 000
+ births + 250,000
– deaths – 91,000
+ immigrants + 16,000
– emigrants – 12,000
Population at year end 12, 163,000
Note: Having more number of births than deaths gives population growth known as Natural Growth of Population. In the illustration above, it is 159 000 (i.e. 250 000 – 91 000 = 159 000).
Similarly, having more number of immigrants than emigrants gives population growth known as Artificial (or Man-made) Growth of Population. In the illustration above, it is 4 000
(i.e. 16 000 – 12 000 = 4 000).
Method 2: Conducting Population Census
Conducting population census means people submitting themselves for counting.
Method 2: Conducting Population Census
Conducting population census means people submitting themselves for counting.
Definition of Population Census:
Population census is official head count of people living in an area at a given time.
Population census reveals the following:
(i) total population at the time the census is conducted. That is, total number of people at that census time.
(i) total population at the time the census is conducted. That is, total number of people at that census time.
(ii) sex distribution of population.
(iii) age distribution of population.
(iv) occupational distribution of population.
(v) geographical distribution of population.
(iii) age distribution of population.
(iv) occupational distribution of population.
(v) geographical distribution of population.
Once there is accurate population census, subsequent population can be determined by adding number of births and immigrants and subtracting number of deaths and emigrants. That is, method 1 above.
Population census is only conducted where the population statistics officials do not have accurate data (statistics) of birth rate, death rate, and migration.
Uses of Census Figure
(i) To know the number of people living in a country and the population distribution.
(ii) Used for economic planning or economic policies formulation by government.
(iii) Used in the sharing of revenue from federal allocation to states and local governments.
(iv) Used to determine taxable adults, to make revenue estimates.
(v) Provides statistics used to determine illiteracy, unemployment and the adequacy of social amenities.
(vi) Business application. Used by companies to estimate demand for their products meant for a certain age bracket.
(vii) Delineation of constituency for election of political representatives. That is, allocation of parliamentary seats in a country.
(viii) Used by international development partners or international donors as they plan for their aids and grants.
(ix) Used by international investors as they make their investment decisions
(x) Used for economic, social and educational research
Problems of Conducting Census in Nigeria
(a) Poor town planning: Some streets are not named and houses are not numbered, which makes it difficult for enumerators (census officials) to locate the houses.
(b) Manipulation or influencing of census figure by political elites, since it is used for allocating political power.
(c) Illiterate and ignorant people in the population who do not understand the importance of census.
(d) Shortage of funds to finance the conduct of census. Census requires the purchase of many pick-up vans, stationery, payment of enumerators, etc
(e) Shortage of trained census officials.
(f) Inaccessibility of remote areas, which makes it difficult for enumerators to reach such areas.
(g) Religious and cultural beliefs, which make some people NOT to submit themselves for counting.
Population Density
Population density is the average number of people per square kilometer.
Example, the population of Calabar, from 2006 population census is, 371,022. Its land mass is 406 square kilometer.
Population census is only conducted where the population statistics officials do not have accurate data (statistics) of birth rate, death rate, and migration.
Uses of Census Figure
(i) To know the number of people living in a country and the population distribution.
(ii) Used for economic planning or economic policies formulation by government.
(iii) Used in the sharing of revenue from federal allocation to states and local governments.
(iv) Used to determine taxable adults, to make revenue estimates.
(v) Provides statistics used to determine illiteracy, unemployment and the adequacy of social amenities.
(vi) Business application. Used by companies to estimate demand for their products meant for a certain age bracket.
(vii) Delineation of constituency for election of political representatives. That is, allocation of parliamentary seats in a country.
(viii) Used by international development partners or international donors as they plan for their aids and grants.
(ix) Used by international investors as they make their investment decisions
(x) Used for economic, social and educational research
Problems of Conducting Census in Nigeria
(a) Poor town planning: Some streets are not named and houses are not numbered, which makes it difficult for enumerators (census officials) to locate the houses.
(b) Manipulation or influencing of census figure by political elites, since it is used for allocating political power.
(c) Illiterate and ignorant people in the population who do not understand the importance of census.
(d) Shortage of funds to finance the conduct of census. Census requires the purchase of many pick-up vans, stationery, payment of enumerators, etc
(e) Shortage of trained census officials.
(f) Inaccessibility of remote areas, which makes it difficult for enumerators to reach such areas.
(g) Religious and cultural beliefs, which make some people NOT to submit themselves for counting.
Population Density
Population density is the average number of people per square kilometer.
Example, the population of Calabar, from 2006 population census is, 371,022. Its land mass is 406 square kilometer.
So, population density of Calabar = 371,022/406 = 913.84 per square km (i.e. 913.84 per km2)
This implies that, in 2006, average number of people per square km in Calabar was approximately 913.
Ageing Population
Ageing population is one in which the number of old persons in the population is increasing.
OR
Ageing population occurs when proportion of old persons in the population is increasing.
Ageing population is one in which the number of old persons in the population is increasing.
OR
Ageing population occurs when proportion of old persons in the population is increasing.
An aging population is a declining population because death rate would exceed birth rate, due to having more old people than young people.
Areas with aging population often encourage immigration of young people.
Note: Another term for old people is aged people.
Increasing Population
An increasing population is a population with more young people than old people.
Areas with aging population often encourage immigration of young people.
Note: Another term for old people is aged people.
Increasing Population
An increasing population is a population with more young people than old people.
Populations of developing countries including Nigeria are increasing populations.
Working Population
This refers to the number of persons in the working age bracket.
Working Population
This refers to the number of persons in the working age bracket.
Sometimes, the working population is considered to be between 18 and 60 years. Below 18 years are children and above 60 are retirees (i.e. pensioners).
At other times, the working population is considered to be between 15 and 60 years. Below 15years are children and above 60 are retirees (i.e. pensioners).
In Nigeria, the retirement age for most jobs is 60 years. In some countries, it is 65 years.
Dependent Population
This refers to number of persons in the children and retirees (or pensioners) age bracket.
At other times, the working population is considered to be between 15 and 60 years. Below 15years are children and above 60 are retirees (i.e. pensioners).
In Nigeria, the retirement age for most jobs is 60 years. In some countries, it is 65 years.
Dependent Population
This refers to number of persons in the children and retirees (or pensioners) age bracket.
That is, 0 – 17 yrs and above 60 yrs.
Dependency Ratio: This is the ratio of number of dependent people to the number of people of working age.
Dependency ratio = dependent population
Dependency Ratio: This is the ratio of number of dependent people to the number of people of working age.
Dependency ratio = dependent population
working population
That is, no of children + no of pensioners (i.e. retirees)
That is, no of children + no of pensioners (i.e. retirees)
number of working age
That is, People of 0 –17yrs + People > 60
That is, People of 0 –17yrs + People > 60
People of 18 – 60 yrs
Illustration
Given the age distribution of population in the table below, calculate the dependency ratio.
Effects/Disadvantages of High Dependency Ratio
(i) Lower savings, because more income is spent on consumer by the dependent people.
(ii) Lower investment, because investment comes from savings, which have become lower.
(iii) Lower production of capital goods and higher production of consumer goods, since the basic needs of the dependent people have to be met first. It is capital goods that induce development.
(iv) Higher government recurrent spending, rather than capital spending, through payment of pension and transfer payment to other dependent people.
Note: Transfer Payment is payment made NOT for exchange of goods and services. So, in transfer payment, no economic activity is said to have taken place.
(v) Lower tax revenues, because tax is paid only by the working class people.
(vi) Lower standard of living, since income earned by the working population has to be shared with the
dependent population.
Illustration
Given the age distribution of population in the table below, calculate the dependency ratio.
0 – 17 years | 18 – 60 years | > 60 years |
25 million | 20 million | 7 million |
Dependency Ratio = (25m + 7m) = 32m | ||||||
|
| 20m |
|
| 20m |
|
The dependent population is higher than the working population.
(i) Lower savings, because more income is spent on consumer by the dependent people.
(ii) Lower investment, because investment comes from savings, which have become lower.
(iii) Lower production of capital goods and higher production of consumer goods, since the basic needs of the dependent people have to be met first. It is capital goods that induce development.
(iv) Higher government recurrent spending, rather than capital spending, through payment of pension and transfer payment to other dependent people.
Note: Transfer Payment is payment made NOT for exchange of goods and services. So, in transfer payment, no economic activity is said to have taken place.
(v) Lower tax revenues, because tax is paid only by the working class people.
(vi) Lower standard of living, since income earned by the working population has to be shared with the
dependent population.
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